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Prediction for CME (2015-04-06T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-04-06T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8179/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-04-10T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-04-09T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2015 Apr 07 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50407
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Apr 2015, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 07 Apr 2015 until 09 Apr 2015)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Apr 2015  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Apr 2015  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Apr 2015  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 017
COMMENT: The Sun released one C3.0 flare during the past 24 hours. It was
produced by NOAA AR 2320, peaked at 19:06 UT on April 6 and was associated
to a dimming, an EUV wave, a surge, a CME and a Type II radio burst. The
CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 19:24 UT and had an angular extent of
about 140 degrees. The plane-of-sky speed derived by CACTUS was 339 km/s,
while the Type II burst corresponds to a speed of 691 km/s. This CME may
deliver a glancing blow in the second half of April 9. In the next 24
hours, more C flaring is expected, with a slight chance for an M flare,
especially from AR 2320 and 2318. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from
about 480 to 400 km/s over the past 24 hours, while the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field magnitude varied between 1 and 5 nT. Over the past 24 hours,
geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp
between 1 and 2). There is a chance for active geomagnetic levels (K
Dourbes = 4) late on April 7 and on April 8, due to a possible glancing
blow of the CME of April 4. Quiet conditions with active intervals are
possible in the second half of April 9, as a result of a glancing blow from
the CME of April 6.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 040, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 06 Apr 2015
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 126
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 010
AK WINGST              : 005
ESTIMATED AP           : 005
ESTIMATED ISN          : 039, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT

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Lead Time: 59.50 hour(s)
Difference: 6.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-04-07T12:30Z

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